Backcasting energy efficiency futures of the European Union - Case studies of Finland and Germany

Due to megatrends, such as climate change and population growth, energy issues have become very important in political discussion. In addition to energy savings, and the use of different energy sources, energy efficiency – consuming less energy to produce the same or more value – is an essential matter, and one of the important goals for the European Union. In this thesis, the targets of the EU 2020/2030 agreements – decreasing energy efficiency 20% by 2020 and 27% by 2030 compared to 1990 – have served as a preferred future vision for energy efficiency exploration. Finland and Germany were chosen as case countries for this thesis, because of their interesting, but different energy policies. Both forecasting and backcasting scenario techniques were utilized to see whether these countries will reach the set energy efficiency targets of the EU by 2020 and 2030. Also, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and de-linking energy consumption from GDP growth were examined to get better understanding of energy efficiency. Five future scenarios – business-as-usual BAU, industry, service, non-renewable, and renewable – were created for both countries by using LINDA accounting framework model. In addition, three intensity scenarios were conducted for Finland and Germany. All of the scenarios were based on the historical data as well as future visions, strategies, and plans of the countries. In this thesis, all the scenarios of Finland and Germany reached the EU 2020/2030 energy efficiency targets. The service and renewable scenarios had the best efficiency figures, whereas the industry and non-renewable scenarios had lower efficiencies than BAU scenario. The EK-Curve did not occur in Finland BAU, but it did appear in Germany. In Finland, de-linking energy consumption from economic growth was weak, whereas in Germany, de-linking appeared to be strong. Because of the challenges in interpreting the several energy efficiency targets, more convenient and coherent ways are needed for measuring. Even though the efficiency targets of the EU are good in trigger action, there might be a need for even more strict targets. Backcasting, the EKC hypothesis and de-linking could be further studied in the light of energy efficiency.siirretty Doriast

FUTURES LITERACY LAB FOR EDUCATION : Imagining Complex Futures of Human Settlements at Finland Futures Academy Summer School 2017

This report presents an instance of Futures Literacy Laboratory (FLL) held for the Finland Futures Academy Summer School on the topic of “complex futures of human settlement in 2050” held in June 2017 at University of Turku. The Futures Literacy Laboratory approach was developed by Riel Miller and UNESCO through a series of instances held around the world starting in 2012. In essence, an FLL aims at increasing futures literacy by increasing awareness of anticipatory assumptions and ‘how the future is used’ in the present. This report describes the theoretical background, pedagogical design, practical implementation, and outcomes of this Summer 2017 FLL. It concludes with lessons learns and suggestions for future applications of FLL

Futures Literacy Lab for Education: Imagining Complex Futures of Human Settlements at Finland Futures Academy Summer School 2017

This book is published as part the research and education agenda of the UNESCO Chair in Learning Society and Futures of Education (LSFE) held by Professor Markku Wilenius at Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. The aim of the UNESCO Chair in LSFE is to utilize the tools of futures research to increase global futures thinking and well-being. The Futures Literacy Lab for Finland Futures Academy Summer School 2017 was co-organized by the UNESCO Chair in LSFE research team, the Futures of Cities and Communities research team, and the UNESCO Management of Social Transformations Programme. </p

Backcasting energy efficiency futures of the European Union - Case studies of Finland and Germany

Due to megatrends, such as climate change and population growth, energy issues have become very important in political discussion. In addition to energy savings, and the use of different energy sources, energy efficiency – consuming less energy to produce the same or more value – is an essential matter, and one of the important goals for the European Union. In this thesis, the targets of the EU 2020/2030 agreements – decreasing energy efficiency 20% by 2020 and 27% by 2030 compared to 1990 – have served as a preferred future vision for energy efficiency exploration. Finland and Germany were chosen as case countries for this thesis, because of their interesting, but different energy policies. Both forecasting and backcasting scenario techniques were utilized to see whether these countries will reach the set energy efficiency targets of the EU by 2020 and 2030. Also, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and de-linking energy consumption from GDP growth were examined to get better understanding of energy efficiency. Five future scenarios – business-as-usual BAU, industry, service, non-renewable, and renewable – were created for both countries by using LINDA accounting framework model. In addition, three intensity scenarios were conducted for Finland and Germany. All of the scenarios were based on the historical data as well as future visions, strategies, and plans of the countries. In this thesis, all the scenarios of Finland and Germany reached the EU 2020/2030 energy efficiency targets. The service and renewable scenarios had the best efficiency figures, whereas the industry and non-renewable scenarios had lower efficiencies than BAU scenario. The EK-Curve did not occur in Finland BAU, but it did appear in Germany. In Finland, de-linking energy consumption from economic growth was weak, whereas in Germany, de-linking appeared to be strong. Because of the challenges in interpreting the several energy efficiency targets, more convenient and coherent ways are needed for measuring. Even though the efficiency targets of the EU are good in trigger action, there might be a need for even more strict targets. Backcasting, the EKC hypothesis and de-linking could be further studied in the light of energy efficiency.siirretty Doriast